In response to an escalating electricity crisis, the Government of Botswana has issued a comprehensive update on the country’s power supply situation. Through the Ministry of Minerals and Energy, the government outlined the steps being taken to address the energy shortfall, restore grid stability, and lay the foundations for long-term energy security.
Understanding the Current Crisis
Rotational load shedding has been introduced by Botswana Power Corporation (BPC) to match national demand with constrained supply; a crucial move to protect the national grid from collapse. The root of the crisis lies in the continued underperformance of the Morupule B power plant, which has been plagued by design flaws and boiler tube failures since it was commissioned in 2013.
To date, Morupule B has never achieved the global Energy Availability Factor (EAF) benchmark of 85%. Between 2014–2019, the plant’s EAF averaged 57%, dropping to 33% between 2020–2022. Currently three of the four generation units are offline (two due to mechanical failure and one for planned remediation), leaving only one unit producing 105 MW out of a possible 150 MW.
An Unsustainable Dependence on Imports
With internal generation critically low, Botswana has become heavily reliant on imported electricity. However, regional power shortages and a spike in emergency supply costs have made this option increasingly untenable. The cost of importing power from South Africa has surged from 85 thebe (c.$0.06)* to 226 thebe (c.$0.16)* and, most recently, to 550 thebe (c.$0.39)* per kilowatt-hour.
In stark contrast, BPC sells electricity domestically at an average of P1.27 per kWh (c. $0.09)*. As a result, the Corporation is incurring immediate losses of over P3.38 (c. $0.24)* per kilowatt-hour for every emergency unit imported and sold.
This pricing imbalance is unsustainable. BPC has accumulated debts of P2.6 billion (c. $186 million)* and continues to service long-term loans, including a P10 billion (c. $714 million)* loan from ICBC and another P140 million (c. $10 million)* from BPOPF. Meanwhile, BPC’s annual revenue from electricity sales is just P430 million (c. $30.7 million)*, despite spending over P33 billion (c. $2.36 billion)* on Morupule and power imports over the past 13 years.
Urgent Reforms Underway
To address the crisis, the Government is implementing a comprehensive intervention plan including:
- Tariff reform to better align electricity prices with real costs
- Unbundling of BPC to streamline operations and improve accountability
- Debt restructuring and financial rescue of BPC
- Diplomatic engagement with China to renegotiate loan terms related to Morupule B
Technically, immediate recovery efforts are underway at Morupule B. Unit 4 is expected back online imminently, and Unit 2 is scheduled to return by 17th April 2025. A negotiated 200 MW supply from South Africa is also expected to provide short-term relief.
Investing in Long-Term Energy Independence
The government is fast-tracking the procurement of a new 615 MW coal-fired power plant, to be delivered within 18–24 months, in addition to maintaining the planned 600 MW Mmamabula project.
Recognising the importance of diversification, the Government has also increased its renewable energy target to 1.5 GW. RFPs have been released for a range of solar developments totalling 1.5 GW:
- 500 MW in Maun
- 500 MW in Letlhakane
- 400 MW in Isang
- 100 MW in Jwaneng
These projects aim to rebalance the energy mix and provide sustainable capacity in the medium term.
Looking Forward: Stabilisation and Resilience
If current timelines are maintained, Botswana expects to stabilise its power supply this week. This will be enabled by continued output from Morupule A (42 MW), the return of Morupule B Units 1 and 4 (182 MW combined), and secured imports of 200 MW from South Africa. The addition of Unit 2 (150 MW) in mid-April will further ease constraints.
While full energy security is only expected to be realised post-2027, the Government remains focused on short-term stabilisation and long-term resilience through infrastructure upgrades, grid modernisation, and investment in both fossil and renewable generation.
The Government reaffirmed its commitment to affordable universal access by 2030, Energy security and net exports by 2030 and a 50/50 energy mix by 2030.
Meanwhile, citizens are encouraged to continue using electricity responsibly during this period of transition. With reforms underway and recovery plans activated, Botswana is laying the groundwork for a more reliable and secure energy future.
